Development and Finance from issue 2008/3

Péter Gál - Csaba Moldicz - Tamás Novák

Uncertain Global Economic Development, Post-stabilisation Economy in Hungary - MFB Macroeconomic Analysis

- Abstract -

Over the last 12 months, assessments of international economic trends and developments have swung frequently between optimism and pessimism. There is no less uncertainty as regards the unfolding of external conditions, while the domestic economy appears to be over the growth and income shock caused by the stabilisation. In Hungary, macroeconomic conditions are relatively benign as a result of the stabilisation, which in principle should enable a pick-up in economic growth. However, the circumstances which we outlined in our analysis in the autumn of 2007 on international economic risks still prevail. Due to the international risks, as Hungary is going through a period of slow growth and high inflation there is a risk that any efforts to push the country onto a sustained and balanced growth trajectory facilitating convergence will become more difficult.


Péter Gál, professor of economics (Corvinus University of Budapest)
Csaba Moldicz, associate professor (Budapest College of Management)
Tamás Novák, associate professor (Budapest Business School)

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