Development and Finance from issue 2008/4

Éva Palócz

Prospects of The Hungarian Economy in 2008 and 2009

- Abstract -

The Hungarian economy has been hit by global economic turbulence in a period when certain domestic economic tensions were going to result in a very slow and sluggish improvement of economic conditions anyway. The fiscal adjustment measures introduced in the summer of 2006, substantial tax increases and the slowing down of government investments would have ensured moderate growth for several years even without problems in the global economy. This contradictory situation shall worsen further in the second half of 2008 and 2009 by unfavourable global economic conditions. In 2009 the growth rate shall be lower than expected due to the disadvantageous conditions in the global economy. This is because the engine of the Hungarian economy has been the rapid growth of exports over the past two years, and due to the slower growth of export markets this factor could decline drastically.

Éva Palócz, PhD, CEO (KOPINT-TÁRKI, Konjunktúrakutató Zrt.)

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