Development and Finance from issue 2009/2

Zsolt Szabó

Methodology-based Attempt to Predict Expected End of Global Economic Recession

- Abstract -


There is intense debate among researchers as to which of the earlier recessions most resembles the current crisis. This growing interest in the nature of the crisis has been put on the agenda after the considerable deepening of international problems, since most analysts previously viewed the financial turmoil as "only" a mortgage market crisis, with a limited geographical effect both in time and depth. Now, more and more are comparing the current negative processes with earlier economic meltdowns, seeking analogies, and at the same time trying to estimate the duration and expected course of the crisis as well as the characteristics of the recovery. Although it is not yet appropriate to draw final conclusions, we can still state that the crisis shall be long and very complex.

Zsolt Szabó, senior fellow at MFB Zrt.

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